CoViD-19 related guff

Correlations

I wonder if there's any connection between the politics or the religiosity of a state and that state's death rate (that's the kaputniks per kapita, not per unit time).

Predictions

Driven insane by innumeracy, or an inability to program numerical models, amongst so-called "experts", I decided to fling together some predictions of my own for when various milestones would be reached.

HCQ efficacy

HCQ's been getting a bad rap, mostly because of deeply flawed studies ("airbags deployed in hospitals don't prevent car accident deaths" level bad), and scientifically-illiterate political-agenda-pushing media ( yes, BBC News, I'm looking straight at you ) parroting the meaningless findings. however, this paper from Henry Ford Health System was brought to my attention today by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity in his video "Covid-19: Vindication! HCQ+ & Ivermectin Work!". The wall of numbers was very poorly presented, and even Chris mangled them a bit, so I decided to just visualise them, as pictures speak louder than numbers/words.

White is life, red is death. Pink is 95% confidence, the black line within it is the recorded ratio. Oh equal areas are equal proportions. Beware things like Simpson's Paradox if you even think of trying to combine groups (i.e. don't combine percentages). Here - I'll do that for you (and remember - trust, but verify!):

Mortality
Rates
HCQ no +
yes
noyes
Azno 108/409=26.4%162/1202=13.5% 270/1611=16.8%
yes 33/147=22.4%157/783=20.1% 190/930=20.4%
no + yes 141/556=25.4% 319/1985=16.1% 460/2541=18.1%

The graph was generated by perl script, as I wouldn't know how to generate such graphs in libreoffice (or whatever they're calling that bloatware monstrosity nowadays) or any other such suite.


Page last knowingly updated: 2021-11-11

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